Overview
For this assignment, you will write an essay within 1,500 words in which you discuss the causal theory and the results of multivariate linear regression analysis based on one of the case cross-section observational study of multivariate linear regression analysis provided.
Construct a causal theory that explains the dependent variable used in the case with one independent variable as the main causal variable of your theory.
Then assume that this case study is the result of your empirical study, and write an essay, which reports and discusses your theory and the result of your empirical analysis.
The goal of this assignment is to deepen your understanding on linear regression analysis through interpreting and discussing a linear regression result as an empirical test of your causal theory.
Requirements
The requirements are as follows:
1. Within 1,500 words.
2. Write the case study number of the case you have chosen (e.g., “Case Study A1”) at the beginning of your essay (e.g. next to the title or your name).
3. In addition to concise yet informative introduction and conclusion, your essay should have the following three distinguishable parts: i) Theory, ii) Empirical Analysis, and iii)
Discussion.
4. In the Theory part of your essay, you should address the followings:
(a) An elaboration of your causal theory with a focus on a single independent variable and its causal mechanism.
(b) A clear causal hypothesis based on your theory to be tested by a linear regression model.
5. In the Empirical Analysis part of your essay, you should address the followings:
(1) A discussion on control variables — independent variables included in the analysis other than the main causal variable for your theory — in particular, why it is appropriate to include these variables as controls.
(2) A presentation and interpretation of the results of a multivariate linear regression analysis — in particular, the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables (both your main causal variable and control variables).
6. In the Discussion part of your essay, you should address the followings:
(1) The question of reverse causality/simultaneity.
(2) The potential problem of omitted confounding variables.
(3) How the results of your empirical research should be interpreted (e.g., Is a causal conclusion sufficiently drawn? Is there any reservation in interpreting the results?).
7. In this essay assignment, a linear regression analysis is used as a tool of descriptive statistics — the method to examine the data at hand. It is not used as a tool of statistical inference — the method to estimate the relationship among variables in the population. You are not expected to apply the knowledge of statistical inference in this essay.
8. A table of the linear regression result should be included in your essay. You may edit the table given in the case studies.
9. No additional research or readings are required for this assignment. However, you will need to give appropriate citations and references, if you cite a passage, use ideas, or base your argument on ideas from other sources.
Some of these requirements are further elaborated below.
Requirement 4. The variables included in a linear regression in the case studies are observables— variables that have been already operationalized. So the theory that you will propose should be stated in general concepts corresponding to the operationalized variables used in the case study.
Requirement 5 – (1). You should discuss if these control variables are confounding variables for your theory. If you argue that they are, you need to elaborate why they should be considered confounding variables. If they are not confounding variables, you need to argue that they are other important causal variables to explain the dependent variables. You need to discuss appropriate causal mechanisms for these variables.
Requirement 5 – (2). You should interpret the coefficient for each independent variable, and then discuss the substantive significance of the main independent variable of your causal theory. When discussing the substantive significance, you need to make an argument rather than merely reporting the computation results.
Findings
The null finding in which your causal theory is not supported by the empirical analysis is acceptable for this essay assignment. Even when the finding is contradictory to your causal theory, you may still write the essay to report that finding. In this case, you should discuss a possible reason why you have found a contradictory result and what it means to the future research on the causal theory that you have proposed. What matters is whether you provide a reasonable, convincing, clear and logical argument based on your theory and empirical analysis.
Format
– Your essay should be within the word count specified above. Footnotes, references or
bibliography, and titles and notes of your graphs and figures are not included in this word
count.
– Your essay should have a concise yet informative introduction and conclusion.
– Sectioning and sub-sectioning are recommended to effectively organize your essay and
communicate your argument to readers. How you effectively organize your essay will be part of the evaluation.
– Your essay should use standard fonts, such as Times New Roman in 12-point font, and be double-spaced.
– Figures and tables should be placed where they are discussed. If your discussion refers to the same figure or table multiple times, you don’t need to insert it every time it’s referred. Placing it where it is mentioned for the first time is sufficient.
– Number your figures and tables and give an informative title, such as “Figure 1. Title of the Figure” and “Table 1. Title of the Table.” You should use their numbers, such as Figure 1 and Table 1, when you refer to them in your discussion.
– Use footnotes rather than endnotes, if you have something that should be stated but is not appropriate to be included in the body of your essay.
– You need to give appropriate citations and references, if you cite a passage, use ideas, or base your argument on ideas from other sources.
– You may use any citation format as long as it is consistently applied throughout the paper.
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