| Assignment: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment
Question: What, over the coming five years, are likely to be the three key threats to UK national security? Evaluate the likelihood of these threats being realised. Word Count: 1500 words Revised Annex: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment Annex Template _V1_.xlsx Revised Guidelines: PP3601 ISSA Booklet _4_.pdf UK National Security: UK National Security.pdf Terrorism: Database (https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/) Do Excel then the actual analysis of 1500 words Lecture 1: Source Evaluation Lecture Â¥ PowerPoint Lecture 1 (Source Evaluation).pdf Core Reading Â¥ Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Randolph H. Pherson, Critical thinking for strategic intelligence, Sage/CQ Press, 2013 (Chapter 9) Essential Reading Â¥ Davies, PHJ. ‘Collection and Assessment on Iraq: A critical look at Britain’s spy machinery’ Studies in Intelligence. studies49_04.pdf, 49 (4). Recommended Reading Â¥ Lord Butler_Review.pdf on Iraq WMD (Chapters 1 and 8) Lecture 2: Intelligence Collection Plan Lecture: Â¥ PowerPoint 3601 Collection Plan.pdf Core Readings: Â¥ Coping with the Complexity of Intelligence Analysis: Cognitive Assistants for Evidence-Based Reasoning.CompIA.pdf Essential Readings: Â¥ Army Open Source Field Manual, US Government, 2008 ARMY Open Source Field Manual.pdf Recommended Readings: Hank Prunckun, Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis: second Edition, 2015. Chapter 8 Lecture 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Lecture: Â¥ Slides 3601 ACH.pdf Core Readings: Â¥ Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Washington DC (1999).PsychofIntelNew(1).pdf Essential Readings: Â¥ Chapter 16 in Bruce J, George R, Georgetown U. Analyzing Intelligence : Origins, Obstacles, And Innovations Recommended Readings: Â¥ Baron, Thinking and Deciding, Chapter 5BARON,+John+-+Thinking+and+deciding.pdf |
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